diff --git a/java/ql/lib/semmle/code/java/dataflow/internal/DataFlowDispatch.qll b/java/ql/lib/semmle/code/java/dataflow/internal/DataFlowDispatch.qll
index c61c256505a..a57d1ca32be 100644
--- a/java/ql/lib/semmle/code/java/dataflow/internal/DataFlowDispatch.qll
+++ b/java/ql/lib/semmle/code/java/dataflow/internal/DataFlowDispatch.qll
@@ -8,9 +8,27 @@ private import semmle.code.java.dataflow.TypeFlow
 private import semmle.code.java.dispatch.internal.Unification
 
 private module DispatchImpl {
+  private predicate hasHighConfidenceTarget(Call c) {
+    exists(SummarizedCallable sc |
+      sc = c.getCallee().getSourceDeclaration() and not sc.isAutoGenerated()
+    )
+    or
+    exists(Callable srcTgt |
+      srcTgt = VirtualDispatch::viableCallable(c) and
+      not VirtualDispatch::lowConfidenceDispatchTarget(c, srcTgt)
+    )
+  }
+
+  private Callable sourceDispatch(Call c) {
+    result = VirtualDispatch::viableCallable(c) and
+    if VirtualDispatch::lowConfidenceDispatchTarget(c, result)
+    then not hasHighConfidenceTarget(c)
+    else any()
+  }
+
   /** Gets a viable implementation of the target of the given `Call`. */
   DataFlowCallable viableCallable(DataFlowCall c) {
-    result.asCallable() = VirtualDispatch::viableCallable(c.asCall())
+    result.asCallable() = sourceDispatch(c.asCall())
     or
     result.asSummarizedCallable() = c.asCall().getCallee().getSourceDeclaration()
   }
@@ -22,7 +40,7 @@ private module DispatchImpl {
    */
   private predicate mayBenefitFromCallContext(MethodAccess ma, Callable c, int i) {
     exists(Parameter p |
-      2 <= strictcount(VirtualDispatch::viableImpl(ma)) and
+      2 <= strictcount(sourceDispatch(ma)) and
       ma.getQualifier().(VarAccess).getVariable() = p and
       p.getPosition() = i and
       c.getAParameter() = p and
@@ -31,7 +49,7 @@ private module DispatchImpl {
     )
     or
     exists(OwnInstanceAccess ia |
-      2 <= strictcount(VirtualDispatch::viableImpl(ma)) and
+      2 <= strictcount(sourceDispatch(ma)) and
       (ia.isExplicit(ma.getQualifier()) or ia.isImplicitMethodQualifier(ma)) and
       i = -1 and
       c = ma.getEnclosingCallable()
@@ -47,7 +65,7 @@ private module DispatchImpl {
   private predicate relevantContext(Call ctx, int i) {
     exists(Callable c |
       mayBenefitFromCallContext(_, c, i) and
-      c = VirtualDispatch::viableCallable(ctx)
+      c = sourceDispatch(ctx)
     )
   }
 
diff --git a/java/ql/lib/semmle/code/java/dispatch/VirtualDispatch.qll b/java/ql/lib/semmle/code/java/dispatch/VirtualDispatch.qll
index 38208db9b71..dd1406ef352 100644
--- a/java/ql/lib/semmle/code/java/dispatch/VirtualDispatch.qll
+++ b/java/ql/lib/semmle/code/java/dispatch/VirtualDispatch.qll
@@ -54,6 +54,16 @@ private module Dispatch {
   cached
   Method viableImpl(MethodAccess ma) { result = ObjFlow::viableImpl_out(ma) }
 
+  /**
+   * Holds if `m` is a viable implementation of the method called in `ma` for
+   * which we only have imprecise open-world type-based dispatch resolution, and
+   * the dispatch type is likely to yield implausible dispatch targets.
+   */
+  cached
+  predicate lowConfidenceDispatchTarget(MethodAccess ma, Method m) {
+    m = viableImpl(ma) and lowConfidenceDispatch(ma)
+  }
+
   /**
    * INTERNAL: Use `viableImpl` instead.
    *
@@ -62,6 +72,42 @@ private module Dispatch {
   cached
   Method viableImpl_v3(MethodAccess ma) { result = DispatchFlow::viableImpl_out(ma) }
 
+  /**
+   * Holds if the best type bounds for the qualifier of `ma` are likely to
+   * contain implausible dispatch targets.
+   */
+  private predicate lowConfidenceDispatch(VirtualMethodAccess ma) {
+    exists(RefType t | hasQualifierType(ma, t, false) |
+      lowConfidenceDispatchType(t.getSourceDeclaration())
+    ) and
+    (
+      not qualType(ma, _, _)
+      or
+      exists(RefType t | qualType(ma, t, false) |
+        lowConfidenceDispatchType(t.getSourceDeclaration())
+      )
+    ) and
+    (
+      not qualUnionType(ma, _, _)
+      or
+      exists(RefType t | qualUnionType(ma, t, false) |
+        lowConfidenceDispatchType(t.getSourceDeclaration())
+      )
+    )
+  }
+
+  private predicate lowConfidenceDispatchType(SrcRefType t) {
+    t instanceof TypeObject
+    or
+    t instanceof FunctionalInterface
+    or
+    t.hasQualifiedName("java.io", "Serializable")
+    or
+    t.hasQualifiedName("java.lang", "Cloneable")
+    or
+    t.getPackage().hasName("java.util") and t instanceof Interface
+  }
+
   /**
    * INTERNAL: Use `viableImpl` instead.
    *